Tennis · Challenger Charlottesville · 02/11, 16:00
Prediction: Colton Smith vs Braden Shick
Team pages: Colton Smith · Braden Shick
Prediction summary
Winner
Colton Smith
Braden Shick
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Colton Smith
4-6 (W-L)
Braden Shick
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Colton Smith 1476 · Braden Shick 1450
| Colton Smith | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Colton Smith | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 0.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-12.5 | 9.2-12.4 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 63.8% |
| Break % | 35.2% | 32% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colton Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Duncan Chan Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/09 | Timo Legout Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Jerome Kym US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 25/08 | Andrea Pellegrino US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Felix Gill Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Braden Shick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Gabriel Debru Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Ozan Baris Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 21/09 | Patrick Maloney Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 15/09 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Clement Tabur US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colton Smith vs Braden Shick?
Our model gives 60% to Colton Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.