Tennis · Challenger Bratislava · 03/11, 10:00
Prediction: Lukas Pokorny vs Toby Samuel
Team pages: Lukas Pokorny · Toby Samuel
Prediction summary
Winner
Lukas Pokorny
Toby Samuel
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Lukas Pokorny
8-2 (W-L)
Toby Samuel
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lukas Pokorny 1570 · Toby Samuel 1488
| Lukas Pokorny | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lukas Pokorny (rating 1570 vs 1488).
Statistics
| Lukas Pokorny | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-10.4 | 12-11.5 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 69.5% |
| Break % | 49% | 43.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lukas Pokorny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Pietro Orlando Fellin M15 Szabolcsveresmart · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/10 | Arvid Nordquist M15 Szabolcsveresmart · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 13/10 | Alex Kobelt M15 Szabolcsveresmart · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/10 | Radu David Turcanu M25 Slobozia |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Valentin Vanta M25 Slobozia |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Stepan Baum M25 Pardubice |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 26/09 | Dominik Recek M25 Pardubice |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/09 | Jonas Gundacker M25 Pardubice |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Marcel Zielinski M25 Pardubice |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Tulln · Clay |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Clement Tabur Challenger Brest · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/10 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Hynek Barton Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Jerome Kym Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 29/09 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Andy Andrade Davis Cup |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 30/08 | Tomas Machac US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Billy Harris US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lukas Pokorny vs Toby Samuel?
Our model gives 64% to Toby Samuel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.