Prediction: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov
Team pages: Denis Shapovalov · Karen Khachanov
Prediction summary
Winner
Denis Shapovalov
Karen Khachanov
Estimated games
25.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Denis Shapovalov
7-3 (W-L)
Karen Khachanov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Denis Shapovalov
2–0
Karen Khachanov
(2 last)
- 07 Jul3-2 26-22W
- 23 Nov2-1 16-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Denis Shapovalov 1567 · Karen Khachanov 1554
| Denis Shapovalov | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 9.8 aces and 48.6% break avg.
- Karen Khachanov dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 44.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Denis Shapovalov 2–0 Karen Khachanov (2).
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Denis Shapovalov | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.9 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-11.9 | 12.9-11.5 |
| Aces | 9.8 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 76.9% | 79% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.6
Over 22.5: 68% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 32% · 1.83
H2H · Denis Shapovalov 2 – 0 Karen Khachanov (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Denis Shapovalov 2–0 Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/21 Wimbledon | 3-2 | 26-22 | W |
| 23/11/19 Davis Cup | 2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Basel · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/10 | Remy Bertola ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/10 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 27/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Vit Kopriva ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 02/09 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 22/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 20/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 04/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov?
Our model gives 56% to Karen Khachanov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.