Prediction: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Annie Fernandez
Team pages: Elena Rybakina · Leylah Annie Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Elena Rybakina
Leylah Annie Fernandez
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elena Rybakina
8-2 (W-L)
Leylah Annie Fernandez
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elena Rybakina
4–2
Leylah Annie Fernandez
(6 last)
- 25 Oct2-0 12-4W
- 17 Apr2-1 19-17W
- 23 Oct2-0 12-7W
- 26 Jul1-2 19-20L
- 15 Aug1-2 16-16L
- 15 Feb2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elena Rybakina 1622 · Leylah Annie Fernandez 1588
| Elena Rybakina | Leylah Annie Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 47.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Elena Rybakina 4–2 Leylah Annie Fernandez (6).
- Note: Leylah Annie Fernandez makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Elena Rybakina | Leylah Annie Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.6 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-9.2 | 13-10.5 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 77.8% | 65% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 48.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.7
Over 21.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 39% · 1.83
H2H · Elena Rybakina 4 – 2 Leylah Annie Fernandez (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elena Rybakina 4–2 Leylah Annie Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/26 WTA Ningbo | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/04/26 WTA Stuttgart | 2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 23/10/25 WTA Tokyo | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/07/25 WTA Washington | 1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 15/08/24 WTA Cincinnati | 1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 15/02/24 WTA Doha | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/10 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/10 | Diana Shnaider WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 03/10 | Alina Charaeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 12/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 11/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 09/09 | Qinwen Zheng US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 07/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Yulia Starodubtsewa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Leylah Annie Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 27/10 | Himeno Sakatsume WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/10 | Elena Rybakina WTA Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 21/10 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 15/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Han Shi WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Annie Fernandez?
Our model gives 65% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.