Tennis · Challenger Guayaquil · 29/10, 20:00
Prediction: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alex Hernandez
Team pages: Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Alex Hernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Alex Hernandez
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
3-7 (W-L)
Alex Hernandez
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1452 · Alex Hernandez 1541
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Alex Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Hernandez (rating 1452 vs 1541).
- Alex Hernandez is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Alex Hernandez makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Alex Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (2) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-12.9 | 12.4-11.6 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 72.9% |
| Break % | 34.9% | 45.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Federico Coria Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/10 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 08/10 | Ilia Simakin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 28/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
Alex Hernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/10 | Filip Misolic Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/10 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Cali · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 19/10 | Franco Ribero Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Matteo Covato Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/10 | Juan Sebastian Osorio M15 Quito · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/10 | Ivan Dreycopp M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 15/10 | Felipe De Dios M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/10 | Gray Voelzke M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Tristan McCormick M15 Quito · ~Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alex Hernandez?
Our model gives 65% to Camilo Ugo Carabelli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.