Tennis · M25 Las Vegas · 28/10, 18:00
Prediction: Matthew Forbes vs Preston Stearns
Team pages: Matthew Forbes · Preston Stearns
Prediction summary
Winner
Matthew Forbes
Preston Stearns
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Matthew Forbes
2-8 (W-L)
Preston Stearns
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matthew Forbes 1443 · Preston Stearns 1564
| Matthew Forbes | Preston Stearns | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Preston Stearns (rating 1443 vs 1564).
- Preston Stearns is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Preston Stearns makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Matthew Forbes | Preston Stearns | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-12.8 | 12-8 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 63.8% | 76.4% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 51% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matthew Forbes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Jack Secord M15 Ithaca |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 09/08 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Jie Cui Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 12/07 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Trevor Svajda M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Preston Stearns
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Jan Chlodnicki M25 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 27/09 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Columbus · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 29/08 | Bryce Nakashima M15 Champaign |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/08 | Marko Mesarovic M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/08 | Joshua Peck M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Noa Vukadin M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/08 | Jon Gamble M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/08 | Simon Caldwell UTR Pro Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/08 | Gregory Bernadsky UTR Pro Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/07 | Henry Lessard UTR Pro Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matthew Forbes vs Preston Stearns?
Our model gives 54% to Preston Stearns, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.