Tennis · Challenger Brest · 28/10, 20:00
Prediction: Francesco Maestrelli vs Gabriel Diallo
Team pages: Francesco Maestrelli · Gabriel Diallo
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Maestrelli
Gabriel Diallo
Estimated games
24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Maestrelli
5-5 (W-L)
Gabriel Diallo
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Francesco Maestrelli
1–0
Gabriel Diallo
(1 last)
- 02 Jan2-1 16-16W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Maestrelli 1475 · Gabriel Diallo 1519
| Francesco Maestrelli | Gabriel Diallo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gabriel Diallo (rating 1475 vs 1519).
- Francesco Maestrelli dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 56.3% break avg.
- Gabriel Diallo dominates on serve: 10.7 aces and 61% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Francesco Maestrelli 1–0 Gabriel Diallo (1).
Statistics
| Francesco Maestrelli | Gabriel Diallo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-12.8 | 14.3-13.8 |
| Aces | 8.3 | 10.7 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 65.6% | 75.7% |
| Break % | 56.3% | 61% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5
H2H · Francesco Maestrelli 1 – 0 Gabriel Diallo (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Francesco Maestrelli 1–0 Gabriel Diallo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/23 Challenger Canberra | 2-1 | 16-16 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Maestrelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Moez Echargui Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/10 | Borna Gojo ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/10 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/10 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/09 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 18/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 16/09 | Arthur Nagel Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 7-14 | L |
Gabriel Diallo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 17/10 | Harold Mayot ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 28/07 | Tristan Boyer ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-30 | L |
| 25/06 | Jack Draper ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Maestrelli vs Gabriel Diallo?
Our model gives 66% to Gabriel Diallo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.