Tennis · M15 Monastir · 28/10, 10:00
Prediction: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Niccolo Ciavarella
Team pages: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz · Niccolo Ciavarella
Prediction summary
Winner
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Niccolo Ciavarella
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
6-4 (W-L)
Niccolo Ciavarella
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1530 · Niccolo Ciavarella 1370
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Niccolo Ciavarella | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 28% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mohamed Aziz Dougaz (rating 1530 vs 1370).
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Niccolo Ciavarella | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 0.4-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-11.4 | 8.3-12.3 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 55.8% |
| Break % | 34.3% | 66.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Nishesh Basavareddy ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/10 | Tom Gentzsch ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 13/10 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Olbia · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Federico Cina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/10 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 23/09 | Reiya Komagata M25 Yinchuan |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/09 | Jorge Plans M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/09 | Nicolas Jadoun M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Edison Ambarzumjan M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Niccolo Ciavarella
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Stefano D'Agostino Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Gabriele Maria Noce M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Francesco Forti Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Andrey Chepelev Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Federico Arnaboldi M25 Fano |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Adrian Andreev M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Raffaele Ciurnelli M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Maximilian Homberg M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Matteo Sciahbasi M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Ilya Snitari M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Niccolo Ciavarella?
Our model gives 82% to Mohamed Aziz Dougaz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.