Tennis · W50 Istanbul · 26/10, 08:00
Prediction: Ksenia Smirnova vs Valeria Garnevska
Team pages: Ksenia Smirnova · Valeria Garnevska
Prediction summary
Winner
Ksenia Smirnova
Valeria Garnevska
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Ksenia Smirnova
7-3 (W-L)
Valeria Garnevska
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ksenia Smirnova 1529 · Valeria Garnevska 1496
| Ksenia Smirnova | Valeria Garnevska | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Ksenia Smirnova | Valeria Garnevska | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-7.5 | 10.3-9.3 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 60.9% | 57.9% |
| Break % | 49.5% | 63.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ksenia Smirnova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Yaren Ozen W50 Istanbul |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 02/10 | Yuliya Hatouka W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
1-2 | 7-9 | L |
| 01/10 | Maddalena Giordano W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/09 | Zuzanna Pawlikowska W35 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 23/09 | Joody Elkady W35 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/07 | Astrid Cirotte W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Dominika Podhajecka W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/07 | Emma Van Poppel W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-0 | W |
| 11/07 | Polina Leykina W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Isabella Kruger W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Valeria Garnevska
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Daniella Dimitrova W50 Stara Zagora |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 11/10 | Monika Gospodinova W50 Stara Zagora |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/10 | Sonja Zhenikhova W50 Burgas |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Sapfo Sakellaridi W15 Varna |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Adriana Tkachenko W15 Varna |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/09 | Anja Stankovic W50 Plovdiv |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Julia Stamatova W50 Plovdiv |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 11/09 | Giulia Safina Popa W15 Campulung |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
| 10/09 | Andreea Prisacariu W15 Campulung |
2-0 | 7-3 | W |
| 08/09 | Alexia-Shara Iancu W15 Campulung |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ksenia Smirnova vs Valeria Garnevska?
Our model gives 58% to Ksenia Smirnova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.