Tennis · Challenger Sioux Falls · 27/10, 17:00
Prediction: Stefan Kozlov vs Murphy Cassone
Team pages: Stefan Kozlov · Murphy Cassone
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefan Kozlov
Murphy Cassone
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Stefan Kozlov
4-6 (W-L)
Murphy Cassone
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefan Kozlov
1–0
Murphy Cassone
(1 last)
- 16 Nov2-0 14-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefan Kozlov 1458 · Murphy Cassone 1567
| Stefan Kozlov | Murphy Cassone | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Murphy Cassone (rating 1458 vs 1567).
- Murphy Cassone is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Stefan Kozlov 1–0 Murphy Cassone (1).
Statistics
| Stefan Kozlov | Murphy Cassone | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.6 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-12.3 | 13.4-10.4 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 61.1% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 49.2% | 56.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
H2H · Stefan Kozlov 1 – 0 Murphy Cassone (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefan Kozlov 1–0 Murphy Cassone
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/25 Challenger Champaign | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefan Kozlov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Columbus · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 29/09 | James Trotter Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Colton Smith Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 14/08 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 12/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Zachary Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Leo Vithoontien Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
Murphy Cassone
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Daniel Masur Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 24/09 | Billy Harris Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Clement Tabur Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 21/09 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/09 | Hugo Car Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/09 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefan Kozlov vs Murphy Cassone?
Our model gives 66% to Murphy Cassone, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.