Tennis · Challenger Guayaquil · 25/10, 16:00
Prediction: Ryan Nijboer vs Mariano Kestelboim
Team pages: Ryan Nijboer · Mariano Kestelboim
Prediction summary
Winner
Ryan Nijboer
Mariano Kestelboim
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Ryan Nijboer
7-3 (W-L)
Mariano Kestelboim
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ryan Nijboer 1551 · Mariano Kestelboim 1448
| Ryan Nijboer | Mariano Kestelboim | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryan Nijboer (rating 1551 vs 1448).
- Ryan Nijboer is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Ryan Nijboer | Mariano Kestelboim | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-10.4 | 9.1-11.6 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 62.8% |
| Break % | 44.6% | 64.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ryan Nijboer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 11/10 | Javier Barranco Cosano Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/10 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/10 | Nico Hipfl Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 03/10 | Alexander Ritschard M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Nicolas Ifi M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 01/10 | Pierre Delage M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/09 | Cedric Stanke M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Mariano Kestelboim
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Iliyan Radulov Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 01/06 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 14/04 | Matias Soto Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/03 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/02 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Tigre · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/01 | Facundo Mena Challenger Concepcion · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 26/01 | Mateus Alves Challenger Concepcion · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 10/11 | Andrea Collarini Challenger Montevideo · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/11 | Juan Pablo Irigoin Challenger Montevideo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/11 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Lima 2 · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ryan Nijboer vs Mariano Kestelboim?
Our model gives 72% to Ryan Nijboer, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.