Prediction: Taylor Fritz vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Team pages: Taylor Fritz · Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Taylor Fritz
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Estimated games
25Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Taylor Fritz
9-1 (W-L)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Taylor Fritz
3–5
Stefanos Tsitsipas
(8 last)
- 12 Oct1-2 14-16L
- 07 Jan0-2 9-13L
- 21 Jan3-1 24-19W
- 14 Apr2-0 12-6W
- 24 Jan2-3 23-26L
- 30 Oct0-2 9-13L
- 20 Sept1-2 15-17L
- 28 Jun2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Taylor Fritz 1537 · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1590
| Taylor Fritz | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefanos Tsitsipas (rating 1537 vs 1590).
- Head-to-head: Taylor Fritz 3–5 Stefanos Tsitsipas (8).
Statistics
| Taylor Fritz | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.9 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.9-12.5 | 13.6-11.5 |
| Aces | 10.4 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 1st serve % | 78.1% | 80.6% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 29% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.5
Over 23.5: 60% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 40% · 1.83
H2H · Taylor Fritz 3 – 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Taylor Fritz 3–5 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/26 ATP Shanghai | 1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/01/26 United Cup | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/01/24 Australian Open | 3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 14/04/23 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/01/22 Australian Open | 2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 30/10/19 ATP Paris | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/09/19 Laver Cup | 1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/06/18 Boodles Challenge | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taylor Fritz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 10/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 26/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 20-23 | L |
| 05/09 | Francisco Cerundolo US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 03/09 | Mattia Bellucci US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-2 | W |
| 01/09 | Darwin Blanch US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 23/10 | James Duckworth ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/10 | Mikhail Kukushkin ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 14/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 10/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Taylor Fritz vs Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Our model gives 52% to Taylor Fritz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.