Prediction: Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud
Team pages: Ben Shelton · Casper Ruud
Prediction summary
Winner
Ben Shelton
Casper Ruud
Estimated games
27Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ben Shelton
5-5 (W-L)
Casper Ruud
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ben Shelton
2–2
Casper Ruud
(4 last)
- 26 Jan3-1 21-17W
- 01 Mar1-2 15-18L
- 18 Apr0-2 8-13L
- 17 Aug2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ben Shelton 1572 · Casper Ruud 1521
| Ben Shelton | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ben Shelton (rating 1572 vs 1521).
- Ben Shelton dominates on serve: 9 aces and 42.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Ben Shelton | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.4 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.2-16.6 | 12.9-10.6 |
| Aces | 9 | 6.8 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 74.7% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 36.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +3.5
Over 23.5: 73% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 27% · 1.80
H2H · Ben Shelton 2 – 2 Casper Ruud (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ben Shelton 2–2 Casper Ruud
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/26 Australian Open | 3-1 | 21-17 | W |
| 01/03/24 ATP Acapulco | 1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 18/04/23 ATP Barcelona | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/08/22 ATP Cincinnati | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ben Shelton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 09/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/09 | Jakub Mensik Davis Cup |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/09 | Jiri Lehecka Davis Cup |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 12/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 09/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 07/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Denis Shapovalov US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 02/09 | Hubert Hurkacz US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
Casper Ruud
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 12/10 | Learner Tien ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Francisco Cerundolo Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 19/09 | Fnu Nidunjianzan Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/09 | Rigele Te Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud?
Our model gives 61% to Ben Shelton, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.