Tennis · UTR Pro Knoxville Women · 27/10, 18:30
Prediction: Francesca Mattioli vs Ava Rodriguez
Team pages: Francesca Mattioli
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesca Mattioli
Ava Rodriguez
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Francesca Mattioli
5-5 (W-L)
Ava Rodriguez
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesca Mattioli 1540 · Ava Rodriguez 1441
| Francesca Mattioli | Ava Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesca Mattioli (rating 1540 vs 1441).
- Francesca Mattioli is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Francesca Mattioli makes many double faults (8.2/match).
Statistics
| Francesca Mattioli | Ava Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.1 | 0.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-12.2 | 8.3-11.3 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 8.2 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 62.6% | 57.3% |
| Break % | 57.1% | 36% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesca Mattioli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Edda Mamedova W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 08/10 | Victoria Bosio W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/10 | Duru Soke W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 06/10 | Anita Sahdiieva W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Rose Marie Nijkamp W15 Nashville |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 30/09 | Eva Maria Ionescu W15 Nashville |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 11/09 | Riley Crowder UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/09 | Joanna Kennedy UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Emmie Moore UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/09 | Saray Yli-Piipari UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Ava Rodriguez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04 | Margaux Maquet W15 Bonita Springs · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/04 | Kallista Liu W15 Bonita Springs · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/02 | Carolina Bohrer Martins W15 Palm Coast |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 02/02 | Madison Sieg W50 Orlando · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 26/01 | Martina Okalova W75 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/01 | Lia Karatancheva W35 Weston · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/01 | Yiming Dang W35 Weston · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 20/11 | Gergana Topalova W35 Boca Raton |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/11 | Abigail Rencheli W35 Boca Raton |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/10 | Capucine Jauffret ITF W15 Sumter · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesca Mattioli vs Ava Rodriguez?
Our model gives 70% to Francesca Mattioli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.