Tennis · M15 Ithaca · 23/10, 17:00
Prediction: Nicolas Arseneault vs Rodrigo Fernandes
Team pages: Nicolas Arseneault · Rodrigo Fernandes
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Arseneault
Rodrigo Fernandes
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Arseneault
5-5 (W-L)
Rodrigo Fernandes
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Arseneault 1513 · Rodrigo Fernandes 1572
| Nicolas Arseneault | Rodrigo Fernandes | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rodrigo Fernandes (rating 1513 vs 1572).
- Rodrigo Fernandes is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Nicolas Arseneault | Rodrigo Fernandes | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (3) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-9.5 | 11.5-7.6 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.7% | 74.7% |
| Break % | 51.1% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar M15 Ithaca |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/10 | Tomasz Berkieta M15 Ithaca |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 20/10 | Ethan Muza M15 Ithaca |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/10 | Eli Stephenson M15 Lexington |
0-2 | 2-7 | L |
| 14/10 | Duje Markovina M15 Lexington |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 27/08 | Jack Anthrop M15 Champaign |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Valentin Gonzalez-Galino M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Rodrigo Fernandes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Mikael Arseneault M15 Ithaca |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 21/10 | Eric David Verdes M15 Ithaca |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Eric David Verdes UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Gregory Bernadsky UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/10 | Brendan McDonald UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/09 | Nicola Ion UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/09 | Rushil Khosla UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/09 | Jack Casciato UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Pavel Lagutin M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Philip Henning M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Arseneault vs Rodrigo Fernandes?
Our model gives 53% to Nicolas Arseneault, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.