Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 22/10, 11:00
Prediction: Andrea Pellegrino vs Francesco Passaro
Team pages: Andrea Pellegrino · Francesco Passaro
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Pellegrino
Francesco Passaro
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Pellegrino
3-7 (W-L)
Francesco Passaro
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Andrea Pellegrino
3–2
Francesco Passaro
(5 last)
- 13 Jun2-0 13-10W
- 14 Apr0-2 7-12L
- 20 Sept2-1 14-10W
- 25 Jul1-2 13-18L
- 14 Jun2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Pellegrino 1452 · Francesco Passaro 1660
| Andrea Pellegrino | Francesco Passaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 77% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesco Passaro (rating 1452 vs 1660).
- Francesco Passaro is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Andrea Pellegrino 3–2 Francesco Passaro (5).
Statistics
| Andrea Pellegrino | Francesco Passaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 100% |
| Win % · Clay | 29% (7) | 100% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 2-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-12.5 | 14.5-9.9 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 79.6% |
| Break % | 34.7% | 46% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
H2H · Andrea Pellegrino 3 – 2 Francesco Passaro (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andrea Pellegrino 3–2 Francesco Passaro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/25 Challenger Perugia | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/04/24 ATP Munich | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/09/23 Challenger Bad Waltersdorf | 2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 25/07/23 Challenger Verona | 1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/06/23 Challenger Perugia | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Pellegrino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/10 | Matej Dodig Challenger Braga · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 09/09 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/08 | Zizou Bergs Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/07 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Gonzalo Bueno ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Francesco Passaro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Gastao Elias Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/10 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 17/10 | Matej Dodig Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 16/10 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
| 15/10 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Tiago Torres Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 11-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Jonas Forejtek Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 10/10 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/10 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Pellegrino vs Francesco Passaro?
Our model gives 70% to Francesco Passaro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.