Tennis · ATP Almaty · 22/10, 08:00
Prediction: Alexander Bublik vs Fabian Marozsan
Team pages: Alexander Bublik · Fabian Marozsan
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Bublik
Fabian Marozsan
Estimated games
24.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Bublik
4-6 (W-L)
Fabian Marozsan
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Bublik 1504 · Fabian Marozsan 1519
| Alexander Bublik | Fabian Marozsan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alexander Bublik dominates on serve: 13.1 aces and 45.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Alexander Bublik | Fabian Marozsan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.3 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-13.4 | 12.6-12.4 |
| Aces | 13.1 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 77.3% | 71% |
| Break % | 45.9% | 33.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.1
Over 22.5: 65% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 35% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Bublik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 11/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Rafael Jodar Laver Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Tommy Paul US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 21-27 | L |
| 03/09 | Adrian Mannarino US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 31/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Fabian Marozsan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Timofey Skatov ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/10 | Zachary Svajda ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 24/09 | Alex Bolt ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Louis Van Herck Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 28/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 27/08 | Martin Damm ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Bublik vs Fabian Marozsan?
Our model gives 58% to Alexander Bublik, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.