Tennis · WTA Ningbo · 22/10, 05:00
Prediction: Elena Rybakina vs Polina Kudermetova
Team pages: Elena Rybakina · Polina Kudermetova
Prediction summary
Winner
Elena Rybakina
Polina Kudermetova
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Elena Rybakina
8-2 (W-L)
Polina Kudermetova
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elena Rybakina
1–0
Polina Kudermetova
(1 last)
- 20 Jun2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elena Rybakina 1613 · Polina Kudermetova 1520
| Elena Rybakina | Polina Kudermetova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elena Rybakina (rating 1613 vs 1520).
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 7 aces and 45.2% break avg.
- Elena Rybakina is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Elena Rybakina 1–0 Polina Kudermetova (1).
- Note: Polina Kudermetova makes many double faults (7.2/match).
Statistics
| Elena Rybakina | Polina Kudermetova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.5 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-9.6 | 10.5-11.3 |
| Aces | 7 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 7.2 |
| 1st serve % | 79.5% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 45.2% | 35.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
H2H · Elena Rybakina 1 – 0 Polina Kudermetova (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elena Rybakina 1–0 Polina Kudermetova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/23 WTA Berlin | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Alina Charaeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 12/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 11/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 09/09 | Qinwen Zheng US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 07/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Yulia Starodubtsewa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Thea Frodin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Polina Kudermetova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Cristina Bucsa WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/10 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/10 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/10 | Katie Volynets WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Clara Tauson WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 30/09 | Yexin Ma WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 21/09 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Seoul · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/08 | Linda Fruhvirtova US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Xiyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elena Rybakina vs Polina Kudermetova?
Our model gives 73% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.