Tennis · WTA Ningbo · 21/10, 06:00
Prediction: Marie Bouzkova vs Iga Swiatek
Team pages: Marie Bouzkova · Iga Swiatek
Prediction summary
Winner
Marie Bouzkova
Iga Swiatek
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Marie Bouzkova
7-3 (W-L)
Iga Swiatek
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marie Bouzkova
0–4
Iga Swiatek
(4 last)
- 05 Sept0-2 12-14L
- 22 Jan0-2 5-12L
- 07 Oct0-2 2-12L
- 31 May0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marie Bouzkova 1521 · Iga Swiatek 1574
| Marie Bouzkova | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 26% | 74% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iga Swiatek (rating 1521 vs 1574).
- Head-to-head: Marie Bouzkova 0–4 Iga Swiatek (4).
Statistics
| Marie Bouzkova | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-10.9 | 11.4-8.7 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 66.8% | 65.1% |
| Break % | 52.6% | 39.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
H2H · Marie Bouzkova 0 – 4 Iga Swiatek (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marie Bouzkova 0–4 Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/26 US Open Women | 0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 22/01/26 Australian Open Women | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/10/25 WTA Wuhan | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 31/05/24 French Open Women | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marie Bouzkova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/10 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/10 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 03/10 | Kimberly Birrell WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Sonay Kartal Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 05/09 | Iga Swiatek US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 03/09 | Harriet Dart US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/08 | Elsa Jacquemot US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Iva Jovic WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 16/10 | Ann Li WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/10 | Ashlyn Krueger WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/10 | Magdalena Frech WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Iva Jovic WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/10 | Donna Vekic WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 03/10 | Xinyu Gao WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Qinwen Zheng US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Marie Bouzkova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marie Bouzkova vs Iga Swiatek?
Our model gives 67% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.