Tennis · Challenger Fort Worth · 20/10, 17:00
Prediction: Alastair Gray vs Lui Maxted
Team pages: Alastair Gray · Lui Maxted
Prediction summary
Winner
Alastair Gray
Lui Maxted
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Alastair Gray
4-6 (W-L)
Lui Maxted
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alastair Gray
1–0
Lui Maxted
(1 last)
- 03 Aug2-0 13-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alastair Gray 1479 · Lui Maxted 1551
| Alastair Gray | Lui Maxted | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lui Maxted (rating 1479 vs 1551).
- Head-to-head: Alastair Gray 1–0 Lui Maxted (1).
- Note: Alastair Gray makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Alastair Gray | Lui Maxted | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 17% (6) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-13 | 12.7-9.7 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 36.1% | 53.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
H2H · Alastair Gray 1 – 0 Lui Maxted (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alastair Gray 1–0 Lui Maxted
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/22 M25 Nottingham | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alastair Gray
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Dominick Mosejczuk M25 Austin |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/10 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Austin |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 15/10 | Li Tu M25 Austin |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/10 | Spencer Johnson M25 Austin |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 14/09 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Maximus Jones Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/08 | George Loffhagen Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 17/08 | Emile Hudd Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 21/07 | Akira Santillan Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
Lui Maxted
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Cosme Rolland De Ravel M25 Austin |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 16/10 | Andrew Fenty M25 Austin |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 15/10 | Roger Pascual Ferra M25 Austin |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 14/10 | Aidan Kim M25 Austin |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/09 | Francisco Rocha Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre M25 Setubal |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Tyler Stice M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Blu Baker M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/09 | Fausto Tabacco M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/09 | Julien Penzlin M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alastair Gray vs Lui Maxted?
Our model gives 53% to Lui Maxted, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.