Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 18/10, 08:00
Prediction: Yuta Shimizu vs Alibek Kachmazov
Team pages: Yuta Shimizu · Alibek Kachmazov
Prediction summary
Winner
Yuta Shimizu
Alibek Kachmazov
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Yuta Shimizu
6-4 (W-L)
Alibek Kachmazov
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yuta Shimizu 1510 · Alibek Kachmazov 1619
| Yuta Shimizu | Alibek Kachmazov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alibek Kachmazov (rating 1510 vs 1619).
- Yuta Shimizu dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 49% break avg.
- Alibek Kachmazov dominates on serve: 8.9 aces and 40.6% break avg.
- Alibek Kachmazov is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Yuta Shimizu | Alibek Kachmazov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11.7 | 13.7-9.7 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 8.9 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.3% | 81.1% |
| Break % | 49% | 40.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yuta Shimizu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 29/09 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 12/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 09/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Aditya Vishal Balsekar Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/08 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Johannus Monday Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Alibek Kachmazov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 11/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 10/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/10 | Fajing Sun Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Evan Zhu Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/10 | Charles Broom Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 05/10 | Grigoriy Lomakin Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/10 | Yan Lang Chen Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 27/09 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Yinchuan |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/09 | Mukund Sasikumar M25 Yinchuan |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yuta Shimizu vs Alibek Kachmazov?
Our model gives 66% to Alibek Kachmazov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.