Tennis · WTA Ningbo · 19/10, 05:00
Prediction: Jelena Ostapenko vs Belinda Bencic
Team pages: Jelena Ostapenko · Belinda Bencic
Prediction summary
Winner
Jelena Ostapenko
Belinda Bencic
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Jelena Ostapenko
6-4 (W-L)
Belinda Bencic
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jelena Ostapenko
1–2
Belinda Bencic
(3 last)
- 13 Jan0-2 9-13L
- 23 Jan0-2 10-14L
- 10 Mar2-1 15-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jelena Ostapenko 1547 · Belinda Bencic 1516
| Jelena Ostapenko | Belinda Bencic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jelena Ostapenko dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 54.5% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Jelena Ostapenko 1–2 Belinda Bencic (3).
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (8.6/match).
- Note: Belinda Bencic makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Jelena Ostapenko | Belinda Bencic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.8 | 12.5-11.1 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 8.6 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 54.5% | 44.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Jelena Ostapenko 1 – 2 Belinda Bencic (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jelena Ostapenko 1–2 Belinda Bencic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/25 Australian Open Women | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/01/20 Australian Open Women | 0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 10/03/18 WTA Indian Wells | 2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Sonay Kartal WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 16/10 | Diana Shnaider WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/10 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 14/10 | Jessica Pegula WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 13/10 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Taylah Preston WTA Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Tatjana Maria US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
Belinda Bencic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Sonay Kartal WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 05/10 | Ann Li WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/09 | Yulia Putintseva US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 10/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 05/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 03/07 | Anna Kalinskaya Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/07 | Xinyu Wang Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jelena Ostapenko vs Belinda Bencic?
Our model gives 51% to Jelena Ostapenko, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.