Tennis · M15 Lexington · 15/10, 18:00
Prediction: Eli Stephenson vs Nicolas Arseneault
Team pages: Eli Stephenson · Nicolas Arseneault
Prediction summary
Winner
Eli Stephenson
Nicolas Arseneault
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Eli Stephenson
4-6 (W-L)
Nicolas Arseneault
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Eli Stephenson 1507 · Nicolas Arseneault 1437
| Eli Stephenson | Nicolas Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eli Stephenson (rating 1507 vs 1437).
- Note: Eli Stephenson makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Eli Stephenson | Nicolas Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 17% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 0.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11.7 | 10.1-11.7 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 35.6% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Eli Stephenson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Michael Bassem Sobhy M15 Lexington |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Bjorn Swenson M15 Lexington |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 27/08 | Ofek Shimanov M15 Champaign |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Alexander Petrov M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Evan Bynoe M25 Champaign |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 23/07 | Lev Seidman M25 Champaign |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 22/07 | Oliver Okonkwo M25 Champaign |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 14/07 | Evan Bynoe M25 Louisville |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Lucca Liu M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Nicolas Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Duje Markovina M15 Lexington |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 27/08 | Jack Anthrop M15 Champaign |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Valentin Gonzalez-Galino M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Liam Draxl M25 Laval |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Eli Stephenson vs Nicolas Arseneault?
Our model gives 60% to Nicolas Arseneault, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.