Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 14/10, 09:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Berto vs Andrey Chepelev
Team pages: Lorenzo Berto · Andrey Chepelev
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Berto
Andrey Chepelev
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Berto
5-5 (W-L)
Andrey Chepelev
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Berto
0–1
Andrey Chepelev
(1 last)
- 14 Sept0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Berto 1535 · Andrey Chepelev 1580
| Lorenzo Berto | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Chepelev (rating 1535 vs 1580).
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Berto 0–1 Andrey Chepelev (1).
- Note: Lorenzo Berto makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Berto | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-10 | 11.6-10.7 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.7% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 51.7% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
H2H · Lorenzo Berto 0 – 1 Andrey Chepelev (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Berto 0–1 Andrey Chepelev
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/26 M25 Santa Margherita | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Berto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Daniele Rapagnetta M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/10 | Arthur Bellegy M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/10 | Manuel Mazza M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/09 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 20/09 | Lorenzo Bocchi Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/09 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 04/09 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Lorenzo Bocchi M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Andrey Chepelev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Simone Massucco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 10/10 | Alexander Weis M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 09/10 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 08/10 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 07/10 | Michiel de Krom M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/09 | Max Wiskandt Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Max Hans Rehberg M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Andrea De Marchi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 17/09 | Lorenzo Comino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 16/09 | Alessandro Battiston M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Berto vs Andrey Chepelev?
Our model gives 66% to Andrey Chepelev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.