Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 15/10, 06:00
Prediction: Arthur Gea vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Team pages: Arthur Gea · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Gea
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Gea
8-2 (W-L)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Gea 1595 · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1594
| Arthur Gea | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 43.9% break avg.
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Arthur Gea | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.9 | 1.8-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.6-13.3 | 13.6-11.2 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 76.8% | 73% |
| Break % | 43.9% | 45.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.7
Over 23.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 38% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/10 | Ben Shelton ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 09/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 07/10 | Jaime Faria ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 02/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 30/09 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Tomas Machac ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Rigele Te ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 29-29 | L |
| 05/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 09/10 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 29/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/09 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 15/07 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Gea vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina?
Our model gives 51% to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.