Tennis · M15 Monastir · 13/10, 12:00
Prediction: Mario Arce Fernandez vs Sebastian Heinrich
Team pages: Mario Arce Fernandez · Sebastian Heinrich
Prediction summary
Winner
Mario Arce Fernandez
Sebastian Heinrich
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Mario Arce Fernandez
6-4 (W-L)
Sebastian Heinrich
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mario Arce Fernandez 1497 · Sebastian Heinrich 1514
| Mario Arce Fernandez | Sebastian Heinrich | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Mario Arce Fernandez | Sebastian Heinrich | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-9.7 | 10.6-11.7 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.1% | 59.2% |
| Break % | 48.7% | 48.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mario Arce Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas M15 Pontevedra |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 05/10 | Daniel Batista M15 Pontevedra |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/09 | Carles Cordoba M15 Melilla |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Leonardo Borrelli M15 Melilla |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/09 | Sander Jong M25 Gijon |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Bernardo Munk Mesa M25 Gijon |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Ryan Nijboer M15 Madrid |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 27/08 | Branko Djuric M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Boris Butulija M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Ognjen Jagrovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Sebastian Heinrich
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Lucca Liu M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Marko Bekeni M25 Pardubice |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Max Frohlich M25 Pardubice |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/08 | Luca Wiedenmann M25 Oldenzaal |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Mac Visser M25 Oldenzaal |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Kylian Collignon M25 Oldenzaal |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Julian Forer M15 Frankfurt |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 03/08 | Justin Ilic M15 Frankfurt |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/07 | Maximilian Todorov M25 Gentofte |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Vincent Jonah Strauch M25 Gentofte |
2-1 | 11-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mario Arce Fernandez vs Sebastian Heinrich?
Our model gives 67% to Mario Arce Fernandez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.