Tennis · W35 Santa Margherita · 13/10, 10:00
Prediction: Matilde Paoletti vs Sofia Shapatava
Team pages: Matilde Paoletti · Sofia Shapatava
Prediction summary
Winner
Matilde Paoletti
Sofia Shapatava
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Matilde Paoletti
4-6 (W-L)
Sofia Shapatava
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matilde Paoletti 1541 · Sofia Shapatava 1464
| Matilde Paoletti | Sofia Shapatava | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matilde Paoletti (rating 1541 vs 1464).
Statistics
| Matilde Paoletti | Sofia Shapatava | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10.2 | 9.1-10.9 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 56.5% | 56.1% |
| Break % | 53% | 46.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matilde Paoletti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Alessandra Mazzola W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/10 | Eva Bennemann W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/10 | Francesca Gandolfi W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Alisa Oktiabreva W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Daria Yesypchuk W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/09 | Maria Toma W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/09 | Marianne Argyrokastriti W35 Reus · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Diletta Cherubini W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 08/09 | Sophie Greiner W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 26/08 | Gabriela Ce W35 Trieste |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Sofia Shapatava
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Alessandra Mazzola W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-11 | L |
| 23/09 | Alisa Oktiabreva W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Laura Boehner W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Angelica Raggi W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Chiara Fornasieri W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 09/09 | Alja Senica W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 04/09 | Francesca Gandolfi W15 Fiano Romano |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Daniela Vismane W15 Fiano Romano |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Cecilia Manitto W15 Fiano Romano |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Laura Mair W35 Trieste |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matilde Paoletti vs Sofia Shapatava?
Our model gives 74% to Matilde Paoletti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.