Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 14/10, 06:00
Prediction: Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Team pages: Casper Ruud · Felix Auger Aliassime
Prediction summary
Winner
Casper Ruud
Felix Auger Aliassime
Estimated games
25.1Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Casper Ruud
6-4 (W-L)
Felix Auger Aliassime
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Casper Ruud
4–5
Felix Auger Aliassime
(9 last)
- 16 Aug0-2 4-12L
- 01 Aug1-2 14-18L
- 30 Apr0-2 9-13L
- 13 Nov2-0 13-10W
- 12 Aug2-0 12-3W
- 04 May2-0 12-5W
- 21 Mar1-2 9-15L
- 25 Apr2-0 13-5W
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Casper Ruud 1548 · Felix Auger Aliassime 1543
| Casper Ruud | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Felix Auger Aliassime dominates on serve: 11.4 aces and 43.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Casper Ruud 4–5 Felix Auger Aliassime (9).
- Note: Felix Auger Aliassime makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Casper Ruud | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-10.3 | 14.5-13.9 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 11.4 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 76% | 77.9% |
| Break % | 35.1% | 43.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.1 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.6
Over 23.5: 61% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 39% · 1.80
H2H · Casper Ruud 4 – 5 Felix Auger Aliassime (9)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Casper Ruud 4–5 Felix Auger Aliassime
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/24 ATP Cincinnati | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08/24 Olympics 2024 - Men | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 30/04/24 ATP Madrid | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/11/22 ATP World Tour Finals | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08/22 ATP Montreal | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/05/21 ATP Madrid | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/03/19 ATP Miami | 1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 25/04/18 Challenger Francavilla | 2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Casper Ruud
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Learner Tien ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Francisco Cerundolo Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 19/09 | Fnu Nidunjianzan Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/09 | Rigele Te Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Felix Auger Aliassime
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 10/10 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 30/09 | Karen Khachanov ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Arthur Rinderknech Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Quentin Halys Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 03/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 01/09 | Rinky Hijikata US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 20/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger Aliassime?
Our model gives 53% to Felix Auger Aliassime, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.