Tennis · M25 Qian Daohu · 13/10, 04:00
Prediction: Jamie Mackenzie vs Luca Castelnuovo
Team pages: Jamie Mackenzie · Luca Castelnuovo
Prediction summary
Winner
Jamie Mackenzie
Luca Castelnuovo
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Jamie Mackenzie
6-4 (W-L)
Luca Castelnuovo
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jamie Mackenzie 1493 · Luca Castelnuovo 1489
| Jamie Mackenzie | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Jamie Mackenzie | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-12.6 | 12.8-12.5 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 78.9% |
| Break % | 43.1% | 34.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jamie Mackenzie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Elmer Moller Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Jan Choinski Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Max Dahlin Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 31/07 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Elmer Moller Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/07 | Buvaysar Gadamauri Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Viktor Durasovic M25 Metzingen |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 22/07 | Tomas Farjat M25 Metzingen |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/06 | Marc Polmans ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Luca Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Akira Santillan Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 22/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 16/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Yanki Erel M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jamie Mackenzie vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Our model gives 50% to Jamie Mackenzie, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.