Tennis · Challenger Olbia · 13/10, 10:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald
Team pages: Lorenzo Carboni · Mackenzie McDonald
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Carboni
Mackenzie McDonald
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Carboni
5-5 (W-L)
Mackenzie McDonald
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Carboni 1471 · Mackenzie McDonald 1448
| Lorenzo Carboni | Mackenzie McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Carboni | Mackenzie McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.2 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.1-9.9 | 11.2-12.9 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 53.7% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 62.2% | 42.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Carboni
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Federico Iannaccone M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Sander Jong M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Javier Barranco Cosano M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/09 | Daniel Michalski M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Gabriele Pennaforti M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/09 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Matteo Sciahbasi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Lausanne |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Noah Karma M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Mackenzie McDonald
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Ryan Nijboer Challenger Braga · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 29/09 | Toby Samuel Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/08 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 26/08 | Thiago Seyboth Wild US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Stefano Napolitano US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Yibing Wu ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Edas Butvilas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald?
Our model gives 66% to Mackenzie McDonald, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.