Tennis · Challenger Santa Cruz · 13/10, 16:00
Prediction: Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Dellien
Team pages: Luis Guto Miguel · Murkel Dellien
Prediction summary
Winner
Luis Guto Miguel
Murkel Dellien
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Luis Guto Miguel
7-3 (W-L)
Murkel Dellien
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luis Guto Miguel
0–1
Murkel Dellien
(1 last)
- 29 Apr1-2 11-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luis Guto Miguel 1530 · Murkel Dellien 1433
| Luis Guto Miguel | Murkel Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luis Guto Miguel (rating 1530 vs 1433).
- Luis Guto Miguel is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Luis Guto Miguel 0–1 Murkel Dellien (1).
Statistics
| Luis Guto Miguel | Murkel Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 22% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 0.5-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-11 | 7.4-11.2 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 76.7% | 63.1% |
| Break % | 49.1% | 35.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
H2H · Luis Guto Miguel 0 – 1 Murkel Dellien (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luis Guto Miguel 0–1 Murkel Dellien
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/25 Challenger Porto Alegre | 1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luis Guto Miguel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 29/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Tyler Zink Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/08 | Valentin Royer Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 15/05 | Manuel Mazza M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 14/05 | Petr Nesterov M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/05 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Murkel Dellien
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Juan Estevez Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 22/09 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Benito Sanchez Martinez Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Ryan Nijboer Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Adrian Andreev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Jack Loge M25 Wetzlar |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Dellien?
Our model gives 66% to Luis Guto Miguel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.