Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 13/10, 06:00
Prediction: Dane Sweeny vs Bernard Tomic
Team pages: Dane Sweeny · Bernard Tomic
Prediction summary
Winner
Dane Sweeny
Bernard Tomic
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Dane Sweeny
3-7 (W-L)
Bernard Tomic
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Dane Sweeny
1–1
Bernard Tomic
(2 last)
- 14 Nov2-1 17-12W
- 15 Jun0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dane Sweeny 1492 · Bernard Tomic 1552
| Dane Sweeny | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernard Tomic (rating 1492 vs 1552).
- Bernard Tomic is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Dane Sweeny | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.6 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-12.6 | 12.9-10.7 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 8.7 |
| Double faults | 3 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 77.2% |
| Break % | 37.3% | 35% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
H2H · Dane Sweeny 1 – 1 Bernard Tomic (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dane Sweeny 1–1 Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/25 Challenger Brisbane | 2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 15/06/23 Challenger Palmas del Mar | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dane Sweeny
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Tristan Schoolkate ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 02/10 | Alex Bolt Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Luciano Darderi US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Lorenzo Musetti US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-11 | W |
| 18/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
Bernard Tomic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Timofey Skatov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/10 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/09 | Fajing Sun ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Rigele Te ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/09 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dane Sweeny vs Bernard Tomic?
Our model gives 56% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.