Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 11/10, 10:30
Prediction: Keegan Smith vs Yuquan Jin
Team pages: Keegan Smith · Yuquan Jin
Prediction summary
Winner
Keegan Smith
Yuquan Jin
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Keegan Smith
4-6 (W-L)
Yuquan Jin
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keegan Smith 1446 · Yuquan Jin 1465
| Keegan Smith | Yuquan Jin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Yuquan Jin makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Keegan Smith | Yuquan Jin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-14.3 | 9.2-11.3 |
| Aces | 11.3 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 69.2% |
| Break % | 18.6% | 29.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keegan Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 30/09 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Edward Winter Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 15/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 24/08 | Alexis Galarneau US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Yuquan Jin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Taisei Ichikawa M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Zihao Liu M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/09 | Nikolai Barsukov M25 Guiyang |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Geun Jun Kim M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 10/09 | Stefan Vujic M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 09/09 | Xirui Han M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Xiaoyin Yang M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 18/08 | Xin Zhou M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-9 | L |
| 11/08 | Adrian Arcon M15 Tianjin |
0-1 | 1-6 | L |
| 17/07 | Asahi Harazaki M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keegan Smith vs Yuquan Jin?
Our model gives 71% to Keegan Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.