Tennis · W50 Lexington · 09/10, 17:00
Prediction: Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon
Team pages: Kaitlyn Carnicella · Lucciana Perez Alarcon
Prediction summary
Winner
Kaitlyn Carnicella
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Kaitlyn Carnicella
5-5 (W-L)
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kaitlyn Carnicella 1503 · Lucciana Perez Alarcon 1550
| Kaitlyn Carnicella | Lucciana Perez Alarcon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucciana Perez Alarcon (rating 1503 vs 1550).
- Note: Kaitlyn Carnicella makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Kaitlyn Carnicella | Lucciana Perez Alarcon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-10.4 | 11.8-8.9 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 60.8% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 54.5% | 47.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kaitlyn Carnicella
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson W50 Lexington |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/10 | Helena Buchwald W50 Lexington |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Mayu Crossley W35 Southaven |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Ekaterina Khayrutdinova W35 Florence |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Ayana Akli W100 Evansville |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Mariam Bolkvadze W100 Evansville |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Monika Ekstrand W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Maria Aytoyan W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/06 | Salma Ewing W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 14/06 | Alina Shcherbinina W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-19 | L |
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Maria Lourdes Carle W50 Lexington |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 07/10 | Mia Slama W50 Lexington |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Tatjana Maria W100 Templeton |
0-2 | 3-11 | L |
| 29/09 | Mayu Crossley W100 Templeton |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 28/09 | Kelly Keller W100 Templeton |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Janae Preston W50 Berkeley |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 25/09 | Emma Kamper W50 Berkeley |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Reina Goto W50 Berkeley |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/09 | Ena Koike W50 Berkeley |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Fangran Tian WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon?
Our model gives 65% to Lucciana Perez Alarcon, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.