Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 09/10, 06:00
Prediction: Alex De Minaur vs Alex Molcan
Team pages: Alex De Minaur · Alex Molcan
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex De Minaur
Alex Molcan
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex De Minaur
5-5 (W-L)
Alex Molcan
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex De Minaur
0–1
Alex Molcan
(1 last)
- 20 May0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex De Minaur 1592 · Alex Molcan 1516
| Alex De Minaur | Alex Molcan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex De Minaur (rating 1592 vs 1516).
- Alex De Minaur is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur 0–1 Alex Molcan (1).
Statistics
| Alex De Minaur | Alex Molcan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-11.6 | 11.5-11.5 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 4 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 71% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 35% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.4
Over 21.5: 66% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 34% · 1.90
H2H · Alex De Minaur 0 – 1 Alex Molcan (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex De Minaur 0–1 Alex Molcan
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/22 ATP Lyon | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 01/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 20-21 | W |
| 20/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Alex Molcan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Federico Cina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 02/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Vit Kopriva ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 20/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Davis Cup |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 23/07 | Alexander Bublik ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex De Minaur vs Alex Molcan?
Our model gives 68% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.