Tennis · W35 Seville · 07/10, 11:00
Prediction: Ariana Geerlings vs Aurora Zantedeschi
Team pages: Ariana Geerlings · Aurora Zantedeschi
Prediction summary
Winner
Ariana Geerlings
Aurora Zantedeschi
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Ariana Geerlings
7-3 (W-L)
Aurora Zantedeschi
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ariana Geerlings 1561 · Aurora Zantedeschi 1487
| Ariana Geerlings | Aurora Zantedeschi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ariana Geerlings (rating 1561 vs 1487).
- Note: Ariana Geerlings makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Ariana Geerlings | Aurora Zantedeschi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.1 | 10.5-10.2 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 58.3% | 59.3% |
| Break % | 49.7% | 47% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ariana Geerlings
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Laura Boehner W35 Seville |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/09 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo WTA Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Lucia Cortez Llorca W35 Reus · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 12/09 | Francesca Pace W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/09 | Amandine Hesse W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/09 | Freya Peet W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/09 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Justina Mikulskyte W75 Bytom |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Anastasia Zolotareva W75 Bytom |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/08 | Chloe Paquet W75 Bytom |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Aurora Zantedeschi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Maria Oliver Sanchez W35 Seville |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/09 | Marta Lombardini WTA Tolentino · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 15/09 | Lucie Havlickova WTA Ljubljana · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Antalya · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Lina Gjorcheska WTA Antalya · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 07/09 | Sofya Lansere WTA Antalya · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/09 | Fiona Ferro W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Amandine Monnot W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/08 | Ida Wobker W75 Leipzig |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia W75 Leipzig |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ariana Geerlings vs Aurora Zantedeschi?
Our model gives 61% to Ariana Geerlings, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.