Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 07/10, 07:30
Prediction: Adrian Mannarino vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Team pages: Adrian Mannarino · Nikoloz Basilashvili
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Mannarino
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Estimated games
23.1Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Mannarino
5-5 (W-L)
Nikoloz Basilashvili
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Adrian Mannarino
2–1
Nikoloz Basilashvili
(3 last)
- 11 Sept2-1 16-15W
- 01 Nov2-0 12-6W
- 08 Feb0-2 12-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Mannarino 1504 · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1565
| Adrian Mannarino | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikoloz Basilashvili (rating 1504 vs 1565).
- Head-to-head: Adrian Mannarino 2–1 Nikoloz Basilashvili (3).
Statistics
| Adrian Mannarino | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-13.5 | 13-10.8 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 8 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 76.7% |
| Break % | 30.1% | 32.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 47% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 53% · 1.80
H2H · Adrian Mannarino 2 – 1 Nikoloz Basilashvili (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adrian Mannarino 2–1 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/24 Challenger Rennes | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 01/11/21 ATP Paris | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/02/17 ATP Sofia | 0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Mannarino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 27/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 25/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Juncheng Shang ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Dan Added Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 5-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-21 | W |
| 26/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Nikoloz Basilashvili
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 05/10 | Andre Ilagan ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 28/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Hanlei Lu ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/08 | Seong Chan Hong US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Mannarino vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Our model gives 55% to Nikoloz Basilashvili, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.