Tennis · Challenger Villena · 06/10, 12:30
Prediction: Francesco Maestrelli vs Oliver Tarvet
Team pages: Francesco Maestrelli · Oliver Tarvet
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Maestrelli
Oliver Tarvet
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Maestrelli
3-7 (W-L)
Oliver Tarvet
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Maestrelli 1479 · Oliver Tarvet 1624
| Francesco Maestrelli | Oliver Tarvet | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 70% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oliver Tarvet (rating 1479 vs 1624).
- Francesco Maestrelli dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 50.6% break avg.
- Oliver Tarvet dominates on serve: 9.3 aces and 54.3% break avg.
- Oliver Tarvet is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Francesco Maestrelli | Oliver Tarvet | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.9-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-12.9 | 13.3-9 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 9.3 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 79.3% |
| Break % | 50.6% | 54.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 18/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 16/09 | Arthur Nagel Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 7-14 | L |
| 09/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexei Popyrin Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Oliver Tarvet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/10 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/08 | Charles Broom Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 27/08 | Emile Hudd Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Oliver Bonding Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/08 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Charles Broom Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 19/08 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Maestrelli vs Oliver Tarvet?
Our model gives 74% to Oliver Tarvet, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.