Tennis · W35 Santa Margherita · 07/10, 09:00
Prediction: Sofia Shapatava vs Alessandra Mazzola
Team pages: Sofia Shapatava · Alessandra Mazzola
Prediction summary
Winner
Sofia Shapatava
Alessandra Mazzola
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Sofia Shapatava
2-8 (W-L)
Alessandra Mazzola
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sofia Shapatava 1486 · Alessandra Mazzola 1445
| Sofia Shapatava | Alessandra Mazzola | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sofia Shapatava (rating 1486 vs 1445).
Statistics
| Sofia Shapatava | Alessandra Mazzola | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (2) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.6-11 | 9.3-12.2 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 56.1% | 49% |
| Break % | 46% | 57.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sofia Shapatava
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Alisa Oktiabreva W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Laura Boehner W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Angelica Raggi W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Chiara Fornasieri W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 09/09 | Alja Senica W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 04/09 | Francesca Gandolfi W15 Fiano Romano |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Daniela Vismane W15 Fiano Romano |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Cecilia Manitto W15 Fiano Romano |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Laura Mair W35 Trieste |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Polina Leykina W35 Krakow |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Alessandra Mazzola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Loes Ebeling Koning W50 Plovdiv |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Dunja Maric W50 Plovdiv |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/09 | Rositsa Dencheva W50 Plovdiv |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/09 | Beatrise Zeltina W50 Pazardzhik |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Federica Trevisan W35 Trieste |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 20/08 | Teodora Miron W35 Bistrita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Iva Ivanova W35 Bistrita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/07 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 20/07 | Dalila Spiteri WTA Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sofia Shapatava vs Alessandra Mazzola?
Our model gives 64% to Alessandra Mazzola, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.