Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 08/10, 06:30
Prediction: Cameron Norrie vs Denis Shapovalov
Team pages: Cameron Norrie · Denis Shapovalov
Prediction summary
Winner
Cameron Norrie
Denis Shapovalov
Estimated games
25.8Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Cameron Norrie
5-5 (W-L)
Denis Shapovalov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Cameron Norrie
2–1
Denis Shapovalov
(3 last)
- 01 Aug1-2 14-17L
- 01 Oct2-0 12-4W
- 19 Jun2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cameron Norrie 1500 · Denis Shapovalov 1578
| Cameron Norrie | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Denis Shapovalov (rating 1500 vs 1578).
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 10.6 aces and 53.5% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Cameron Norrie 2–1 Denis Shapovalov (3).
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Cameron Norrie | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.9-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-12.4 | 16.2-13.4 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 10.6 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 6.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 76.7% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 53.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +2.3
Over 23.5: 66% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 34% · 1.80
H2H · Cameron Norrie 2 – 1 Denis Shapovalov (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cameron Norrie 2–1 Denis Shapovalov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 ATP Los Cabos | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 01/10/21 ATP San Diego | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06/21 ATP Queens | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cameron Norrie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 16/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Dino Prizmic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 05/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 31/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 27/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Vit Kopriva ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 02/09 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 16/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cameron Norrie vs Denis Shapovalov?
Our model gives 56% to Denis Shapovalov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.