Tennis · W35 Seville · 05/10, 11:00
Prediction: Esther Lopez Alcaraz vs Maria Trujillo Garnica
Team pages: Esther Lopez Alcaraz
Prediction summary
Winner
Esther Lopez Alcaraz
Maria Trujillo Garnica
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Esther Lopez Alcaraz
6-4 (W-L)
Maria Trujillo Garnica
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Esther Lopez Alcaraz 1472 · Maria Trujillo Garnica 1385
| Esther Lopez Alcaraz | Maria Trujillo Garnica | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Esther Lopez Alcaraz (rating 1472 vs 1385).
- Esther Lopez Alcaraz is in better form: 40% recent wins.
- Note: Maria Trujillo Garnica makes many double faults (7/match).
Statistics
| Esther Lopez Alcaraz | Maria Trujillo Garnica | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 10% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 0.2-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-11 | 4.6-12.1 |
| Aces | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 7 |
| 1st serve % | 56.8% | 53.9% |
| Break % | 56.2% | 33.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Esther Lopez Alcaraz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Paula Cembranos W50 Yecla |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 09/09 | Marianne Argyrokastriti W35 Reus · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Maria Berlanga Bandera W35 Vigo |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 03/08 | Maria Toma W75 Ourense |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Madhurima Sawant W75 Ourense |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/07 | Meritxell Teixido Garcia W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 24/06 | Ayla Aksu W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Raquel Caballero Chica W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Elizaveta Rozhkova W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Anna Kubareva W35 Tauste · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Maria Trujillo Garnica
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Stephanie Judith Visscher W15 Torello · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Valentina Losciale W15 Logrono |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Emma Ottavia Ghirardato W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Indianna Spink W50 Montemor-o-Novo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Cristina Diaz Adrover W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Anastasiia Firman W15 Monzon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 01/03 | Seda Baslilar W15 Hagetmau · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/12 | Victoria Gomez O'Hayon W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/11 | Jade Bornay ITF W15 Alcala De Henares · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Yleymi L M Valdez ITF W15 Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Esther Lopez Alcaraz vs Maria Trujillo Garnica?
Our model gives 77% to Esther Lopez Alcaraz, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.