Tennis · Challenger Villena · 05/10, 12:30
Prediction: Philip Henning vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Team pages: Philip Henning · Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Prediction summary
Winner
Philip Henning
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Philip Henning
8-2 (W-L)
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Philip Henning 1547 · Ivan Marrero Curbelo 1491
| Philip Henning | Ivan Marrero Curbelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Philip Henning (rating 1547 vs 1491).
Statistics
| Philip Henning | Ivan Marrero Curbelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.2-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-9.7 | 12.1-13 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 63% |
| Break % | 41% | 46.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Philip Henning
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Thijs Boogaard Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 30/09 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Alec Deckers M25 Setubal |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Robin Bertrand M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Tomas Curras Abasolo M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Joao Dinis Silva M25 Setubal |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 21/08 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 20/08 | Diogo Coelho M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/08 | Alexander Watanabe Eriksson M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Dan Added M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 27/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 07/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 26/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 17/08 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Lev Seidman Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 07/08 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Philip Henning vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo?
Our model gives 67% to Philip Henning, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.