Tennis · Challenger Villena · 06/10, 10:00
Prediction: August Holmgren vs Pedro Martinez
Team pages: August Holmgren · Pedro Martinez
Prediction summary
Winner
August Holmgren
Pedro Martinez
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
August Holmgren
3-7 (W-L)
Pedro Martinez
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · August Holmgren 1451 · Pedro Martinez 1506
| August Holmgren | Pedro Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pedro Martinez (rating 1451 vs 1506).
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| August Holmgren | Pedro Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-13.3 | 10.7-10.5 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73.5% | 63.8% |
| Break % | 36.1% | 53% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
August Holmgren
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/08 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 22/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Pedro Martinez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/09 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Laslo Djere Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 11/09 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/09 | Maximo Zeitune Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/09 | Francesco Forti Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Jay Clarke Challenger Como · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 25/08 | Daniil Glinka US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Valentin Royer Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in August Holmgren vs Pedro Martinez?
Our model gives 51% to August Holmgren, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.