Tennis · Challenger Villena · 04/10, 14:00
Prediction: Charles Chen vs Petr Nesterov
Team pages: Charles Chen · Petr Nesterov
Prediction summary
Winner
Charles Chen
Petr Nesterov
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Charles Chen
3-7 (W-L)
Petr Nesterov
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Charles Chen 1432 · Petr Nesterov 1517
| Charles Chen | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Petr Nesterov (rating 1432 vs 1517).
- Petr Nesterov is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Charles Chen makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Charles Chen | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (4) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-13 | 13-11.7 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 71.5% |
| Break % | 46.6% | 54.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Charles Chen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Andrea Colombo M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 16/09 | Damien Salvestre M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Sergi Fita Juan M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Felipe Jose Rivadeneira Gallegos M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 04/06 | Ivan Marrero Curbelo M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 20/05 | Eyad Reda Ezzat Mohamed Sherif M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Bekkhan Atlangeriev M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Zachary Sands M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/05 | Finn Reilly M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/05 | Peter Alam M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Petr Nesterov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Goncalo Marques Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 28/09 | Marko Topo Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/09 | Giorgio Tabacco Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 22/09 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M25 Muttenz |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 09/08 | Gabriele Piraino Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Adrian Andreev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Sebastian Sorger Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Charles Chen vs Petr Nesterov?
Our model gives 76% to Petr Nesterov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.