Tennis · Challenger Villena · 04/10, 15:30
Prediction: Joshua Sheehy vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Team pages: Joshua Sheehy · Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Prediction summary
Winner
Joshua Sheehy
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Joshua Sheehy
5-5 (W-L)
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joshua Sheehy 1422 · Ivan Marrero Curbelo 1469
| Joshua Sheehy | Ivan Marrero Curbelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ivan Marrero Curbelo (rating 1422 vs 1469).
- Joshua Sheehy dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 52% break avg.
- Note: Joshua Sheehy makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Joshua Sheehy | Ivan Marrero Curbelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 22% (9) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-13.3 | 11.3-12.8 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 64.3% |
| Break % | 52% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joshua Sheehy
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Evan Zhu Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 27/07 | Renta Tokuda Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 19/07 | Edward Winter Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 13/07 | Christian Langmo Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 12/07 | Kelly Giese Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 25/05 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 24/05 | Daniel Masur Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 07/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 26/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 17/08 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Lev Seidman Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 07/08 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joshua Sheehy vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo?
Our model gives 65% to Ivan Marrero Curbelo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.