Tennis · W15 Sharm El Sheikh · 01/10, 09:00
Prediction: Maddalena Giordano vs Ksenia Smirnova
Team pages: Maddalena Giordano · Ksenia Smirnova
Prediction summary
Winner
Maddalena Giordano
Ksenia Smirnova
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Maddalena Giordano
4-6 (W-L)
Ksenia Smirnova
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maddalena Giordano 1442 · Ksenia Smirnova 1521
| Maddalena Giordano | Ksenia Smirnova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ksenia Smirnova (rating 1442 vs 1521).
- Ksenia Smirnova is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Maddalena Giordano makes many double faults (4.5/match).
- Note: Ksenia Smirnova makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Maddalena Giordano | Ksenia Smirnova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (1) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-11.4 | 10.2-9.5 |
| Aces | 2 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 56.2% | 57% |
| Break % | 49.4% | 52.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maddalena Giordano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Manon Favier W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 20/09 | Chelsea Fontenel W50 Yecla |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 01/09 | Noemi Maines W15 Fiano Romano |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 24/08 | Cristina Pescucci W35 Verbier Qual |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Berta Passola W35 Verbier |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Anastasiya Kuparev W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Maria Torre Moral W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Georgina Hays W35 Don Benito |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Polina Isakova W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Carlota Vila Salles W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Ksenia Smirnova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Zuzanna Pawlikowska W35 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 23/09 | Joody Elkady W35 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/07 | Astrid Cirotte W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Dominika Podhajecka W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/07 | Emma Van Poppel W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-0 | W |
| 11/07 | Polina Leykina W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Isabella Kruger W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/07 | Danielle Dai Chapman W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Dominika Podhajecka W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 03/07 | Jenny Duerst W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maddalena Giordano vs Ksenia Smirnova?
Our model gives 75% to Ksenia Smirnova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.