Tennis · M15 Sharm El Sheikh · 01/10, 09:00
Prediction: Robert Strombachs vs Luca Castagnola
Team pages: Robert Strombachs · Luca Castagnola
Prediction summary
Winner
Robert Strombachs
Luca Castagnola
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Robert Strombachs
5-5 (W-L)
Luca Castagnola
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Robert Strombachs
1–0
Luca Castagnola
(1 last)
- 19 Apr2-1 21-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Robert Strombachs 1583 · Luca Castagnola 1510
| Robert Strombachs | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Robert Strombachs (rating 1583 vs 1510).
- Head-to-head: Robert Strombachs 1–0 Luca Castagnola (1).
- Note: Robert Strombachs makes many double faults (4.6/match).
- Note: Luca Castagnola makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Robert Strombachs | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (5) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-10.5 | 10.5-10.6 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 65% |
| Break % | 44.7% | 37.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
H2H · Robert Strombachs 1 – 0 Luca Castagnola (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Robert Strombachs 1–0 Luca Castagnola
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/22 M15 Antalya | 2-1 | 21-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Robert Strombachs
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Karan Singh M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 26/09 | Branko Djuric M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/09 | Fares Zakaria M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Michal Krajci M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Muthu Aadhitiya Senthilkumar M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/09 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 14/09 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/09 | Pavlos Tsitsipas Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 06/09 | Andrew Paulson Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Luca Castagnola
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Jan Werblinski M15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/09 | Fares Zakaria M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Jan Hrazdil M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 06/09 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Matic Hribar M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/08 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Stefan Popovic M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 18/08 | Maximilian Figl M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Bruno Fernandez M15 Trier |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Robert Strombachs vs Luca Castagnola?
Our model gives 73% to Robert Strombachs, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.