Tennis · Challenger Bari · 30/09, 10:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Giustino vs Matthew William Donald
Team pages: Lorenzo Giustino · Matthew William Donald
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Giustino
Matthew William Donald
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Giustino
6-4 (W-L)
Matthew William Donald
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Giustino 1559 · Matthew William Donald 1535
| Lorenzo Giustino | Matthew William Donald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Matthew William Donald makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Giustino | Matthew William Donald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11.9 | 11.8-10.7 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 1 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 42% | 51.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Giustino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | John Sperle Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 25/09 | Gerard Campana Lee M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Matias Ponce de Leon Gomila M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
1-0 | 12-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Enrique Carrascosa Diaz M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Grigor Dimitrov US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 19/08 | Henry Bernet Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 18/08 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/08 | Jerome Kym Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Matej Dodig Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Matthew William Donald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Olle Wallin Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/09 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 27/09 | Carles Cordoba Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/09 | Dali Blanch Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Gianluca Cadenasso Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/09 | Giovanni Oradini Challenger Biella · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 07/09 | Mika Brunold Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Jelle Sels Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Giorgio Tabacco Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Giustino vs Matthew William Donald?
Our model gives 54% to Lorenzo Giustino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.