Tennis · M25 Darwin · 30/09, 09:00
Prediction: Arjun Mehrotra vs Blake Ellis
Team pages: Arjun Mehrotra · Blake Ellis
Prediction summary
Winner
Arjun Mehrotra
Blake Ellis
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arjun Mehrotra
6-4 (W-L)
Blake Ellis
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Arjun Mehrotra
0–3
Blake Ellis
(3 last)
- 20 Dec0-2 10-13L
- 04 Oct1-2 18-21L
- 22 Aug0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arjun Mehrotra 1567 · Blake Ellis 1503
| Arjun Mehrotra | Blake Ellis | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arjun Mehrotra (rating 1567 vs 1503).
- Head-to-head: Arjun Mehrotra 0–3 Blake Ellis (3).
Statistics
| Arjun Mehrotra | Blake Ellis | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9 | 11.7-11.7 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 9.2 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 50.4% | 27% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
H2H · Arjun Mehrotra 0 – 3 Blake Ellis (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arjun Mehrotra 0–3 Blake Ellis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/22 ITF M15 Tauranga | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/10/21 M25 Nevers | 1-2 | 18-21 | L |
| 22/08/21 M15 Monastir | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arjun Mehrotra
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Alex Bulte M25 Darwin |
2-1 | 11-7 | W |
| 19/09 | Scott Jones UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Jerome Estephan UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 17/09 | Jera Staley UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/09 | Haruto Ishikawa UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Jeremy Beale UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/09 | Pablo Perez Ramos M15 Bali |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 09/09 | Ha Minh Duc Vu M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 03/09 | Digvijay Pratap Singh M15 Bali |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Jake Dembo M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Blake Ellis
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 10/09 | Max Purcell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Benjamin O'Connell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Hayden Jones M15 Bali |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Reece Falck M15 Bali |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Duje Markovina M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Joshua Charlton M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Benjamin O'Connell M25 Brisbane |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Hayden Jones M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arjun Mehrotra vs Blake Ellis?
Our model gives 61% to Blake Ellis, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.