Tennis · ATP Beijing · 01/10, 05:00
Prediction: Alex Molcan vs Arthur Rinderknech
Team pages: Alex Molcan · Arthur Rinderknech
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Molcan
Arthur Rinderknech
Estimated games
26.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Molcan
7-3 (W-L)
Arthur Rinderknech
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Molcan
0–2
Arthur Rinderknech
(2 last)
- 08 Feb0-2 11-14L
- 26 Oct0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Molcan 1504 · Arthur Rinderknech 1478
| Alex Molcan | Arthur Rinderknech | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Arthur Rinderknech dominates on serve: 14.1 aces and 44.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alex Molcan 0–2 Arthur Rinderknech (2).
- Note: Arthur Rinderknech makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Alex Molcan | Arthur Rinderknech | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.3-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-12.5 | 16.2-16 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 14.1 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 77.6% |
| Break % | 38.8% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.7
Over 22.5: 74% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 26% · 1.90
H2H · Alex Molcan 0 – 2 Arthur Rinderknech (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Molcan 0–2 Arthur Rinderknech
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Davis Cup | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/10/22 ATP Basel | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Molcan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Vit Kopriva ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 20/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Davis Cup |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 23/07 | Alexander Bublik ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Arthur Rinderknech
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime Davis Cup |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/09 | Liam Draxl Davis Cup |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 04/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 02/09 | Jaume Munar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 30/08 | Sho Shimabukuro US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-17 | W |
| 16/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 08/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 05/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 22/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Molcan vs Arthur Rinderknech?
Our model gives 53% to Arthur Rinderknech, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.